“It’s all a bit of a phony war. The only thing the Tories have to agree on is the wording of the Backstop – the lack of an expiry date is the first official admission that a genuine Brexit might never happen, the beginning of the end – and the Brexiters are having a melt-down over it. But the UK gov and the EU are pretty much proceeding as if the Exit agreement – the Transition Period – has already been signed off. Indeed, the EU27 offered, yesterday, to extend it by a year, until 2022.
So, yes, the phony war – weeks of froth about amendments so that Parliament can vote on what has basically already been agreed. And 100,000 people marching for a vote on a Final Deal which won’t be ready until after we have left.
May’s agenda has worked. Delay the A50; Refuse to define Brexit; Postpone the next election; Ask for a Transition Period where nothing much changes; Fool everyone by coming across as pro-brexit. If Corbyn is so foolish as to say that we should cancel the referendum, then bonus for May, she can blame him for everything.
Why the subterfuge? I don’t think many people understand the dynamics of the situation. Canceling Brexit just like that is like saying the whole referendum was a scam and the government never intended to honour the result. That’s because the arguments to and for haven’t really changed – the truth of it now could be seen before.
Canceling Brexit just like that is to risk the next four years seeing a populist Tump/Putin fueled UKIP2 gaining a majority in 2022 on the manifesto promise of a binding, no-quibbles-honest!, referendum. Fancy that? A “second referendum” risks the Leavers winning again.
But this question has to be faced at some point for Brexit will never really happen in anything more than a fudge. It’s pointless at best. Impossible, even. Only a radical, bold narrative will be enough to knock Brexit off the table – one that addresses some of the issues that led people to vote on it (political disenfranchisement and being ignored) and convinces the EU27 that we are serious. I suggest regional devolution across England and a UK federation of around 12 or 13.”